📑 Contents (v2.0 Enhanced)
📋 Executive Summary
⚠️ Key Finding: Despite strong fundamentals and AI momentum, Palantir is severely overvalued. DCF analysis suggests 54% downside from current price.
- Business: Leading AI/data analytics platform for government & commercial clients
- Financials: Revenue +57% YoY (2025), net income $1.98B, exceptional growth
- Valuation: Trading at 71x P/S and 215x P/E — extreme by any measure
- Key Risk: Valuation bubble; even bullish DCF scenario shows 43% downside
💰 Financial Analysis
Historical Performance
| Metric ($M) |
2022 |
2023 |
2024E |
Trend |
| Revenue |
1,906 |
2,225 |
2,650 |
↑ 19% |
| Gross Profit |
1,528 |
1,792 |
2,145 |
↑ |
| Net Income |
(374) |
209 |
350 |
🔒 |
3-Year Earnings Forecast NEW
| Metric |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
Source |
| Revenue ($B) |
2.65 |
3.18 |
3.75 |
Yahoo Finance |
| Revenue Growth |
19% |
20% |
18% |
Analyst Consensus |
| EPS |
$0.15 |
$0.22 |
$0.30 |
🔒 |
🦊 Financial Verdict: Clean profitability inflection with 80%+ gross margins. AIP driving commercial acceleration. Watch SBC dilution.
💎 Valuation Analysis NEW in v2.0
Relative Valuation
| Metric |
PLTR |
5Y Avg |
Industry |
Rating |
| P/E (TTM) |
214.7x |
150x |
35x |
Extreme |
| P/S (TTM) |
71.6x |
40x |
10x |
Extreme |
| EV/EBITDA |
217.3x |
140x |
20x |
Extreme |
| PEG |
2.5 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
🔒 |
DCF Valuation
Key Assumptions:
| Parameter |
Value |
Rationale |
| Forecast Period |
10 years |
High-growth tech company |
| Revenue CAGR |
18% → 5% |
Declining to maturity |
| Terminal Growth |
2.5% |
GDP proxy |
| WACC |
10% |
Tech sector average |
Scenario Analysis
🟡 Base Case
$61.02
-54.5%
🦊 Valuation Verdict: Severely overvalued. DCF suggests fair value around $61, implying 54% downside. Even the most bullish scenario shows significant overvaluation.
🔔 Insider Trading NEW in v2.0
Recent Transactions (6 Months)
| Date |
Insider |
Title |
Type |
Shares |
Price |
| 2025-01-15 |
Alexander Karp |
CEO |
Sell |
500K |
🔒 |
| 2024-12-20 |
Stephen Cohen |
Co-Founder |
Sell |
200K |
🔒 |
| 2024-11-05 |
David Glazer |
CFO |
Buy |
10,000 |
$21.50 |
🟡
Signal: Mixed - Founders selling (routine 10b5-1 plans), CFO buying (bullish signal)
Data source: OpenInsider.com, SEC Form 4
🦊 Moat Assessment
| Moat Type |
Strength |
Notes |
| Switching Costs |
🟢 Strong |
Deep integration, years to deploy |
| Government Lock-in |
🟢 Strong |
Security clearances, long contracts |
| Data Network Effects |
🟡 Medium |
Improves with customer data |
| Technical Moat |
🟡 Medium |
Competition rising |
Overall Moat Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (Narrow Moat)
🐂🐻 Bulls Say / Bears Say NEW in v2.0
🐂 Bulls Say
- AIP is a game-changer - AI Platform driving unprecedented customer adoption and expansion
- Government business is sticky - Multi-year contracts with high renewal rates
- Profitability inflection - First GAAP profitable year proves business model works
🐻 Bears Say
- Valuation is stretched - 15x P/S is expensive even for high-growth software
- SBC dilution is severe - Stock-based comp running at ~20% of revenue
- Competition intensifying - Big Tech and startups closing gap
🦊 Get the Full v2.0 Report
Complete report includes: Full DCF model, 5-year projections,
sensitivity analysis, all insider transactions, risk matrix
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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk. Data sourced from public SEC filings and third-party providers; Elyfinn does not guarantee accuracy.